Archive for January, 2013

Infant mortality rates in Detroit and Michigan

January 27, 2013

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The above chart shows the infant mortality rate for 2010 and the five year rolling average for the infant mortality rate from 2006 to 2010 for the counties in Southeastern Michigan. Wayne County has the highest infant mortality rate: in 2010, it was 9.7 per 1,000 live births and the five year rolling average was 10.2. When looking at the rolling average rates, Washtenaw County is the lowest with 5.3. In 2010, St. Clair County had the lowest infant mortality, with a rate of 4.7.

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The above chart shows that the infant mortality rate for the City of Detroit has consistently been higher than the rate for the State of Michigan from 1970 through 2000. While the rates have been decreasing for both the city and the state, Michigan has a smooth decreasing trend, whereas Detroit’s rate has been unstable. Part of the smoothness of the Michigan curve is simply the larger number of cases.  Detroit’s lowest infant mortality rate was 13.4 in 2006 while the state’s lowest rate was 7.1 in 2010. Detroit’s infant mortality rate was 13.5 in 2010.

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According to both the charts above, in both the state and the City of Detroit, black children had the highest infant mortality rate from 1990 to 2010. In Michigan, the highest rate among that race was 22.1 in 1992; that rate decreased to 14.2 in 2010. For the white race the highest rate was 7.9 in 1990 and the lowest rate was 5.4 in 2004; it was 5.5 in 2010.

The instability of a constant decline, or increase, is pronounced in the white race in the City of Detroit, again, probably because of a smaller number of cases.  In 1990 the rate of infant mortality for whites in the City of Detroit was 8.7 and in 2010 it was 8.5. During this 20-year period, it reached a high of 11.5 (2003) and a low of 3.4 (1996). For blacks, the infant mortality high was recorded at 23.3 in 1992 and has since decreased to 14.4 in 2010.

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The above chart shows the three-year rolling average rate of infant mortality from 2008 to 2010 by cause of death. The Michigan Department of Community Health only tracked these causes per 10,000 live births, as opposed to the rates based on 1,000 live births above, because they are grouped into broader categories when being coded. Premature birth/low birth weights and congenital abnormalities  were the two highest causes of infant death, according to the Michigan Department of Community Health. The rate for premature birth/low birth weights was 16.7 per 10,000 and the rate for congenital abnormality related deaths was 15.2. The cause with the lowest rate was birth trauma with a rate of 0.

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The above chart compares the infant mortality rates of Detroit and Michigan to the highest and lowest international rates and the four countries with rates closest to Detroit. As can be seen, in 2010, Angola had the highest infant mortality rate of 178.3 and Monaco had the lowest with 1.78. The countries closest to Detroit 2010 infant mortality rate of  13.5 were Aruba and Turks and Caicos, which were just below the city’s rate, and the Bahamas and British Virgin Islands, which were just above it. The 2010 infant mortality rate for the U.S. is lower than both Detroit’s and Michigan’s rates.

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Crashes in the City of Detroit and the State of Michigan

January 20, 2013

The charts below show the rate of crashes or the rate of people involved (for various types of crashes) for the City of Detroit and the State of Michigan from 2004 to 2011. These rates were calculated using data provided by the Michigan Office of Highway Safety Planning and population numbers for both the state and Detroit. Each rate is based on 100,000 residents. We are seeking total vehicle miles travelled (VMT) as alternative way of calculating rates, and we will provide an additional post when that data becomes available. It may be that VMT will yield either higher or lower rates for Detroit relative to the state because, while a smaller proportion of Detroit residents are drivers, many commuters drive in and out of Detroit.

The Michigan Office of Highway Safety Planning (michigantrafficcrashfacts.org) has data about crashes in the State of Michigan from 1982 until 2011, but data are only available by county from 1992 to 2011 and by city from 2004 to 2011. Crash data include motor vehicles, motorcycles, emergency vehicles, busses, and farm and snow equipment, unless otherwise specified. Specific charts in this post also look at the number of pedestrians and bicyclists involved in crashes.

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The chart above shows the total crash rate for the State of Michigan is consistently higher than that in the City of Detroit. Overall, both the state and Detroit have seen a decrease in the number of crashes from 2004 to 2011. For example, in 2004 the total crash rate in the state was 3,697 and by 2011 it was 2,876. In the City of Detroit the total crash rate was 3,665 and by 2011 it was 2,786. Also, 2004 and 2011 are years in which the state’s and Detroit’s total crash rates were the closest. The largest difference between the total crash rate for the two was in 2009.crash2

The above chart shows the rate at which male and female drivers were in crashes for both the City of Detroit and Michigan. As can be seen in the chart, male drivers are in motor vehicle accidents more often than females when comparing them just at the state or city level. However, there is a higher rate of drivers at the state level being in crashes, whether male or female, than people in crashes in the City of Detroit. The rate of uncoded/error cases for the City of Detroit is higher than those at the state level.

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According to the chart above, the rate of alcohol related motor vehicle accidents is higher for the State of Michigan than the rate for the City of Detroit.  While both rates have experienced an overall decline from 2004 to 2011, the decline at the state level has been much more consistent. For example, in 2008 the rate of alcohol related motor vehicle accidents in the City of Detroit was 61 and by 2010 that number was 80. In 2011 though the rate of such accidents in Detroit decreased to 68; the rate for Michigan in 2011 was 100.

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As can be seen in the chart above, the trend of the rate of crashes in the state being higher than those in the City of Detroit continues. In this chart we see an increase in the rate of crashes where drugs were involved for both the state and the City of Detroit. In 2004, there was a rate of 14 drug related motor vehicle crashes in the state and 4 for Detroit. By 2011 that number increased to 19 in the state and 5 in Detroit. From 2004 to 2011 the rate in Detroit did not go above 5 or below 3. For the state though, the rate never dropped below 14 (which was in 2004) and the high was 20 in 2010.

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The chart above shows the number of people killed in motor vehicle accidents per 100,000 residents. Detroit’s rate has remained below the state rate in most years. There has been an overall decline for both Detroit and the state for the rate of fatalities in motor vehicle accidents from 2004 to 2011. In 2004 the rate of fatalities in motor vehicle accidents at the state level was 16; that number was 14 for Detroit. In 2011 that rate decreased to 12 for the state and 10 for Detroit. Detroit’s rates have been much more inconsistent than those at the state level.

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The number of bicyclists involved in motor vehicle accidents has been much more erratic for the City of Detroit than for the State of Michigan. In 2004 the rate for Detroit (24) was higher than state’s rate (22). By 2011 Detroit’s rate decreased to 15, but there were a few peaks and valleys along the way. The state’s rates for motor vehicle accidents involving bicyclists has been much more consistent. By 2011 the state’s rate had decreased to 19, and while this was the low, the high was 22 in 2007.

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Unlike the other charts we have seen throughout this post, the rate at which pedestrians were involved in crashes with motor vehicles was consistently higher in Detroit than the rate at the state level. In 2004, there were 85 pedestrians involved in such a crash in the City of Detroit; that number was 28 at the state level. While Detroit’s rate has been higher than the 2004 since then, it has not dropped below 54 (this was in 2008 and 2009). In 2011, the rate was 72 for the City of Detroit and 24 for the state.

Most serpentine district poll winner announced

January 17, 2013

According to Drawing Detroit viewers, the most serpentine district is Michigan’s 76th District for the House of Representatives. This district received 18 of the 34 votes, or 53% of the vote. Michigan’s 14th Congressional District came in second place with 10 votes, or 29% of the vote. There is a tie for the third most serpentine district. According to the voters, Michigan’s 11th Congressional District and Michigan’s First State Senate District each received two votes, or 10% of the vote.

December reports for monthly economic indicators

January 14, 2013
•Unemployment rate decreases, while the number of employed increases (monthly)
•Purchasing manager’s index decreases (monthly)
•Commodity price index remains steady (monthly)
•Business and personal bankruptcies decrease (quarterly)
•Housing starts slightly increase (quarterly)
•Amount of personal incomes reported increases (quarterly)
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According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, the jobless rate for the month of October was at 18.9 percent in Detroit; it was at 9.1 percent for the state. While the state’s jobless rate remained fairly steady between September and October (it decreased by .2 percent), it increased by .8 percent in the City of Detroit during the same two months. Please note the chart shows Michigan’s unemployment rate for the month of November, which was 8.9 percent, but no November data for Detroit has been released.

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The number of employed in the city of Detroit increased by 747 people from September to October. This rising trend began in July. Between July and October 4,822 people became employed, according to the most recent data.

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According to the most recent data released on South Eastern Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the number decreased 7 points from October to November; in November it was recorded at 51.9. The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories; a PMI above 50 means the economy is expanding. The PMI of 51.9 means the economy continues to expand. However, the 7 point drop means the economic growth is slowing down. The November 2012 index of 51.9 is about inline where it was at in November of 2011; the index at that time was recorded at 51.5.

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The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices for Southeast Michigan, has fluctuated throughout 2012. Most recently though, from October to November it has remained relatively unchanged. It went from 51.5 in October to 51.4 in November. The 51.4 score in November of 2012 is 8.6 points below where the Commodity Price Index was in November of 2011.

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Both charts above show that the number of bankruptcies, both business and personal, filed in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical area (Detroit-Livonia-Warren) have been declining over the last year. From the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of this year the number of business bankruptcies’ filed decreased by 141, and 84% decrease, and the number of personal bankruptcies filed decreased by 4,431, an 86% decrease.

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Between the second and third quarter of 2012 the number of housing starts in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area began to level off at 4,482; this is about 50 starts above the second quarter of this year.

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According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, total personal income is the income received by persons from all sources. These types of sources include monies received from participation in production, government, and business transfer payments. From the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of this year the amount of personal income residents in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area has slightly increased. In the third quarter of 2011 the amount of personal income reported was  $171,903,000 and a year later it was reported at $180,561,000.

Serpentine poll update

January 7, 2013

As of 7:30 a.m. on Monday, Jan. 7, these are the results of the most “serpentine” poll posted last week:

Michigan’s 76th District for the House of Representatives: 17 votes ( 52%)

Michigan’s 14th Congressional District: 10 votes (30%)

Michigan’s 11th Congressional District: 2 votes (6%)

Michigan’s First State Senate District: 2 votes (6%)

Michigan’s 13th Congressional District: 1 vote (3%)

Michigan’s 13th District for the House of Representatives: 1 vote (3%)

With only 33 votes thus far, we will be leaving poll open for another week. Voting will now end on Tuesday, Jan. 15. Votes can be cast here.

Violent Crime in Detroit and Michigan

January 6, 2013

In the following post we will explore violent crime rates in the City of Detroit and Michigan. Each rate is per 100,000 residents. In addition to the violent crime rate, this post also looks at the murder and non-negligent manslaughter and the aggravated assault rates. These are used to determine the violent crime rate. All information in the charts was obtained from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Report.

The chart below shows the violent crime rate trend for both the City of Detroit and the State of Michigan from 1985 to 2011. According to the FBI, violent crime “is composed of four offenses: murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.” Forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault rates were examined in a Drawing Detroit post on Dec. 3; this post can be found here.

The data provided shows that the violent crime rate in Michigan has consistently remained less than half to a fourth of the City of Detroit’s.  While Michigan’s violent crime rate has declined since 1985, the rate in Detroit has been much more erratic and has never gone below 1,740; this was the 2004 rate. The rate has increased recently. In 2011, the violent crime rate for both Detroit and the state declined from 2010. Detroit’s rate was recorded at 2,137 and the state’s was 289.9 in 2011.

Also, please note no information was provided for Detroit for 1993 because the forcible rape rate is used to calculate the violent crime rate, and in that year the data collection methodology for the offense of forcible rape used by the State Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program did not comply with national UCR Program guidelines. While the rape rate wasn’t provided by the City of Detroit it was provided for the state by estimating national rates per 100,000 inhabitants within eight population groups and assigning the forcible rape volumes proportionally to the state.

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In the slide below, the murder and non-negligent manslaughter rate for Detroit and the state are examined. According to the FBI, murder and non-negligent manslaughter is defined as “the willful (non-negligent) killing of one human being by another. The classification of this offense is based solely on police investigation as opposed to the determination of a court, medical examiner, coroner, jury, or other judicial body.”

As with the other crimes examined in this post, and the Dec. 3 post, the state’s rate remains lower than Detroit’s. The murder rate in the state shows a steady trend of leveling off. The state’s highest murder rate since 1985 was recorded at 12.2 in 1987; in 2011 it was recorded at 6.2.  The murder rate in the state began to level off in 1996 when it was recorded at 7.5.

For the City of Detroit, the murder rate dropped to 35.7 in 2008, but it has been trending upward since then. In 2011 the rate was recorded at 48.2 (this consisted of 344 murders and non-negligent homicides.  By Dec. 16, 2012 the Detroit Police Department reported 375 homicides). The highest rate recorded for the City of Detroit since the FBI began tracking the rates in 1985 was in 1987; 1987 was also the highest recorded rate for the State of Michigan as a whole in this time frame.  In 1987 the murder rate for the City of Detroit was 62.8 and for the State of Michigan it was 12.2.

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The map below shows the “deadliest crimes,” which the Detroit News defines as  homicides and shootings, that have been reported in the City of Detroit since May 1, 2012. Red spots, or “hot spots” mean there have been at least three shootings nearby. From there, the color scheme means that orange/yellow is the next “hottest” area, followed by green, then purple, and then nothing. Exact addresses are not recorded on this map.

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The two charts below compare the violent crime and murder rates for Detroit and four of the closest cities to Detroit in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (which is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau and is comprised of Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair, and Wayne counties). For both the rates shown below, Detroit’s rates are the highest. For the murder rate, the city with the second highest rate is the City of Southfield; the rate was recorded at 5.6 in 2011. Detroit’s rate was recorded at 48.2. For the violent crime rate, the City of Warren ranks second behind Detroit. The violent crime rate in Detroit (2,137) is about four times higher than Warren’s (536).

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The chart below shows the murder and non-negligent homicide rates for the 10 most populated cities in 2011, along with the City of Detroit (Detroit was not in the top 10). The cities are arranged according to population numbers, highest to lowest. Detroit had the highest murder rate in 2011, which was recorded at 48.2. The City of Philadelphia’s rate came in first of the top 10 most populated cities in the U.S.; its rate was recorded at 21.6. Chicago’s rate came in second of the top 10 most populated cities at 15.9. Of the top 10 most populated cities, San Diego had the lowest rate at 2.8.

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POLL: Which district is the most serpentine?

January 1, 2013

Happy New Year. This year Michigan’s elected officials begin representing some of the wackiest districts in recent years. This is because the re-districting process that Michigan goes through every ten years apparently abandoned any attempt to maintain compact districts. And, as a result, we have some truly serpentine districts for State House and Senate as well as members of the U.S. House of Representatives. The districts are as narrow as 600 feet in places, the reported length of one of Babe Ruth’s home runs.

We have decided to have a contest and let our readers decide which district they consider most serpentine. “Serpentine” means “winding or turning one way and another” according to one definition in Webster’s that captures the connotation we seek to convey here.

Below, you will find 11 different Michigan districts (four from the U. S. House of Representatives, four from the Michigan Senate, and three from the Michigan House) that can viewed as serpentine. These were nominated by political scientists and graduate students.  We are asking our readers to choose which district, by popular vote, is the most serpentine. After a week of voting we will post the results.

CONGRESS

The Ninth Congressional District in the state covers communities in both Macomb and St. Clair counties. These communities are: Bloomfield Township, Southfield Township, City of Royal Oak, Berkley, Huntington Woods, Pleasant Ridge, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Madison Heights, Center Line, Warren, Sterling Heights, Mt. Clemens, Fraser, Clinton Township, Roseville, Eastpointe, and St. Clair Shores. On Nov. 6 Sander Levin-D was elected to represent this district; he previously represented the 12th Congressional District before redistricting.

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The 11th Congressional District is made up of the following Oakland County communities: Clawson, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Troy, Auburn Hills, Lake Angelus City, Keego Harbor, Sylvan Lake, Waterford Township, White Lake Township, Commerce Township, Milford Township, Walled Lake, Wixom, City of Novi, Novi Township, City of Northville, Northville Township, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Township, Livonia, City of Farmington, Canton, Lyon Township, and the City of South Lyon. Thad McCotter resigned as the representative on July 6, 2012. Kerry Bentivolio-R will be begin representing this district in January.

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The 13th Congressional District covers the Wayne County communities of: Redford Township, Highland Park, portions of Detroit, Ecorse, Melvindale, River Rouge, Dearborn Heights, Inkster, Wayne, Westland, and Romulus. This district is represented by John Conyers Jr.-D.Cong13

The 14th Congressional District in the state is made up of: Pontiac, Orchard Lake, West Bloomfield Township, Farmington Hills, City of Southfield, City of Lathrup, Grosse Pointe Shores, Oak Park, Royal Oak, Hamtramck, a portion of Detroit, Harper Woods, Grosse Point Farms, Grosse Pointe Shores, Grosse Pointe, and Grosse Pointe Park.  This district, which was formerly the Ninth District, is represented by Gary Peters-D, who was re-elected on Nov. 6.

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Senate

The First State Senate District in Michigan is made up of: Grosse Ile, Gibraltar, Brownstown, Trenton, Woodhaven, Riverview, Wyandotte, Ecorse, River Rouge and a portion of Detroit.  This district is represented by Coleman Young II-D.

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The Second Senatorial District in the state is made up of: portions of Detroit, Highland Park, Hamtramck, Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe Woods, Grosse Pointe Shores, Grosse Pointe Farms, Grosse Pointe, and Grosse Pointe Park. This district is represented by Bert Johnson-D.

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The Fourth Senatorial District in the state is made up of: Southgate, Allen Park, Lincoln Park, and portions of Detroit. This district is represented by Virgil Smith Jr.-D.

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The Fifth Michigan Senatorial District in the state is made up of: portions of Detroit, Redford Township, Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Inkster. It is represented by Tupac Hunter-D; he is currently serving his second term.

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House:

The 13th District for the Michigan House of State Representatives is made up of: portions of Dearborn Heights, Allen Park, and Southgate.  Andrew Kandrevas-D is currently the representative for the district and was elected again on Nov. 6.

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The 29th District for the State House of Representatives is made up of: Auburn Hills, Pontiac, and Orchard Lake. The current representative is Tim Greimel-D; he was elected to serve again on Nov. 6.House29

The 76th House of Representatives District covers the City of Grand Rapids. On Nov. 6, incumbent Republican Roy Schmidt (who was formerly a Democrat) was defeated by Democrat Winnie Brinks.

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The images above were provided by the Michigan Secretary of State of Office.